Sunday, January 4, 2009

Understanding Money Behavior in a Financial Crisis

By Laura Rowley

One of the keys to surviving the economic crisis, at least from a psychological perspective, is recognizing what you can and can't control. And not doing destructive things while you're powerless.

Asserting Control

In 1950s, psychologist Julian Rotter developed a concept called "locus of control." Contrary to Freud's notion that human beings are a simmering stew of unconscious drives, Rotter argued that personality is a function of interaction with the environment. Depending on how their efforts have been received in the past, people develop an internal locus of control -- a belief that success or failure comes from their own efforts -- or an external locus of control -- a belief that luck, chance, or other people largely determine outcomes.

People can move along the internal-external continuum depending on the situation. Rotter's work became highly influential in education, medicine, and economics. Studies in the 1970s, for example, found that giving hospital patients and nursing home residents a stronger sense of control resulted in better health outcomes.

How we choose to deal with the powerlessness wrought by the economic crisis is not trivial, given the mounting number of related suicides. I tracked down Rotter, 94, who's a professor emeritus at the University of Connecticut, to find out which locus of control can help people cope with the current mess.

Inside/Outside

"It depends," he said. "People who are more internal tend to blame themselves because they think they had control over what happened. People who are external think it's all chance or luck anyway and are more likely to shrug it off."

On the other hand, he adds, "A lot depends on how they classify the event beforehand;

a lot of people are internal but realize to begin with that they don't have any control over the stock market. It also depends on whether they chose the stocks themselves or an investment company did the choosing for them. [In the latter case] they're more likely to realize there's more chance involved than they thought."

Similarly, someone who gets laid off can blame their own performance, or view himself as an unlucky fatality in an economic storm. "People who are more internal work out a strategy to prevent it from happening the next time," says Rotter. "The internal [person] is always more likely to try to do something to fix it. But not everything in the world can be controlled by individual people."

Status for Sale

And there's the rub -- a feeling of powerlessness can trigger irrational responses that exacerbate financial problems. A paper published earlier this year in the Journal of Consumer Spending, for example, found that a state of powerlessness increased consumers' willingness to pay for status-related products.

"Low power is an aversive state marked by a lack of control," says Derek Rucker, co-author with Adam Galinsky, both of Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management, of a study on powerlessness and consumerism in the Journal of Consumer Research. "If I have more of something than others, that's one thing I can use to compensate for being powerless -- I can acquire status."

Study respondents were asked to write about a time when they felt powerful or powerless. Afterward, they participated in an online auction that included high-status goods such as a fur coat and a silk tie. "For products with low or no association with status, there was no difference in the reservation price for those who had power or those with no power," says Rucker. "But for products associated with status, those who recalled they didn't have power indicated they were willing to pay more for them."

Paths to Power

Rucker says when it's difficult or impossible to directly confront the issue that's causing powerlessness, "a consumption decision becomes one means of fulfilling that need for power. At least for some individuals it could create a cyclical downward spiral."

To wit: I recently heard a story of a man who, shortly after his layoff, decided to add a third floor to his home. Similarly, a friend who lost money in the market told me she has been spending more than she did before the loss, on expensive furniture and the like.

Rucker says the spiral can be avoided simply by being aware of the phenomenon: "Alerting them to the behavior may be enough to change it. You can think about why it is you want this product -- is it because you're feeling powerless? Are there ways to circumvent this through more positive means -- means that don't have disastrous outcomes for spending?"

Out of Control

Another reaction to powerlessness is seeing patterns and connections that don't exist, leading to poor judgment, according to research published in Science by Galinsky and Jennifer Whitson, an assistant professor at the Macomb School of Business at the University of Texas, Austin.

Subjects were presented with a series of "snowy" pictures, some containing images and others random dots. People who felt they lacked control more often perceived images in the latter. In another experiment, some participants were told the stock market was currently a volatile minefield and others that it was calm and predictable. Then both were presented with an equal amount of positive and negative information about a company, and asked whether they would invest.

Those primed to feel powerless by volatility "were more likely to make strong conclusions about [investing] that were unwarranted," says Whitson. "Those who chose not to invest remembered more negative phrases than they had seen."

Restoring the Power

Researchers found that reminding people of their core values reversed the effect. Before their experiments, Galinsky and Whitson asked participants to rank by importance a list of six values, such as knowledge and connection with others. At the end of the experiment, participants were given questionnaires and asked to write about either their most or least important value.

"Among those who got chance to affirm something central to their identity, their perceptions of patterns returned to normal -- whereas those who did not get a chance to affirm values still saw patterns that were not there," says Whitson.

"My gut tells me that when people knew they could control what they thought was important in their lives, it returned to them that sense of ‘the world might be crazy but I know what's important,'" she adds. "No matter how out of control the world is, the one thing we always have control of is what we decide to care about."

Survival Through Reinforcement

Rucker agrees, adding that a sense of power can be restored by having a close friend affirm what they value about you: "It's not enough to think to yourself why you're good -- you need others pouring in support for you."

Financially speaking, it helps to be conscious of what you can control: managing spending, boosting income by moonlighting or selling goods on eBay, evaluating how much risk you're really comfortable with, and reducing investment fees. Then set achievable goals. For instance, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell about 40 percent in 2008, wreaking havoc with college and retirement portfolios. Figuring out how to save more in 2009 -- rather than day-trading in hopes of rebounding from losses -- is a more rational response that will help restore a sense of control.

Finally, try to put financial problems in historical perspective, Rotter suggests. "I've lived a long time and there were extraordinary events going on all through my life -- starting way back in the Depression," says Rotter, who was in his 20s at the time. "For a lot of people, that was far more crushing than this recession. You had to react by figuring out ways to survive through [your] own efforts -- and that's very strong reinforcement. It had that effect, at least, on me."

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

What Are Commodity Markets ?

Commodity markets are markets where raw or primary products are exchanged. These raw commodities are traded on regulated commodities exchanges, in which they are bought and sold in standardized contracts.

This article focuses on the history and current debates regarding global commodity markets. It covers physical product (food, metals, electricity) markets but not the ways that services, including those of governments, nor investment, nor debt, can be seen as a commodity. Articles on reinsurance markets, stock markets, bond markets and currency markets cover those concerns separately and in more depth. One focus of this article is the relationship between simple commodity money and the more complex instruments offered in the commodity markets.

What Is "Bond Market"

The bond market (also known as the debt, credit, or fixed income market) is a financial market where participants buy and sell debt securities, usually in the form of bonds. As of 2006, the size of the international bond market is an estimated $45 trillion, of which the size of the outstanding U.S. bond market debt was $25.2 trillion.

Nearly all of the $923 billion average daily trading volume (as of early 2007) in the U.S. bond market takes place between broker-dealers and large institutions in a decentralized, over-the-counter (OTC) market. However, a small number of bonds, primarily corporate, are listed on exchanges.

References to the "bond market" usually refer to the government bond market, because of its size, liquidity, lack of credit risk and, therefore, sensitivity to interest rates. Because of the inverse relationship between bond valuation and interest rates, the bond market is often used to indicate changes in interest rates or the shape of the yield curve.

Market structure

Bond markets in most countries remain decentralized and lack common exchanges like stock, future and commodity markets. This has occurred, in part, because no two bond issues are exactly alike, and the number of different securities outstanding is far larger.

However, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is the largest centralized bond market, representing mostly corporate bonds. The NYSE migrated from the Automated Bond System (ABS) to the NYSE Bonds trading system in April 2007 and expects the number of traded issues to increase from 1000 to 6000.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

What Are "ETF - Exchange-Traded Fund"

An exchange-traded fund (or ETF) is an investment vehicle traded on stock exchanges, much like stocks. An ETF holds assets such as stocks or bonds and trades at approximately the same price as the net asset value of its underlying assets over the course of the trading day. Most ETFs track an index, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the S&P 500. ETFs may be attractive as investments because of their low costs, tax efficiency, and stock-like features. In a survey of investment professionals conducted in March 2008, 67% called ETFs the most innovative investment vehicle of the last two decades and 60% reported that ETFs have fundamentally changed the way they construct investment portfolios.

An ETF combines the valuation feature of a mutual fund or unit investment trust, which can be purchased or redeemed at the end of each trading day for its net asset value, with the tradability feature of a closed-end fund, which trades throughout the trading day at prices that may be substantially more or less than its net asset value. Closed-end funds are not considered to be exchange-traded funds, even though they are funds and are traded on an exchange. ETFs have been available in the US since 1993 and in Europe since 1999. ETFs traditionally have been index funds, but in 2008 the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission began to authorize the creation of actively-managed ETFs.

Most investors can buy and sell ETF shares only in market transactions, but institutional investors can redeem large blocks of shares of the ETF (known as "creation units") for a "basket" of the underlying assets or, alternatively, exchange the underlying assets for creation units. This creation and redemption of shares enables institutions to engage in arbitrage that causes the value of the ETF to approximate the net asset value of the underlying assets.

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Thursday, December 11, 2008

What Are "Futures" ?

In finance, a futures contract is a standardized contract, traded on a futures exchange, to buy or sell a standardized quantity of a specified commodity of standardized quality (which, in many cases, may be such non-traditional "commodities" as foreign currencies, commercial or government paper [e.g., bonds], or "baskets" of corporate equity ["stock indices"] or other financial instruments) at a certain date in the future, at a price (the futures price) determined by the instantaneous equilibrium between the forces of supply and demand among competing buy and sell orders on the exchange at the time of the purchase or sale of the contract. The future date is called the delivery date or final settlement date. The official price of the futures contract at the end of a day's trading session on the exchange is called the settlement price for that day of business on the exchange.

A futures contract gives the holder the obligation to make or take delivery under the terms of the contract, whereas an option grants the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to establish a position previously held by the seller of the option. In other words, the owner of an options contract may exercise the contract, but both parties of a "futures contract" must fulfill the contract on the settlement date. The seller delivers the underlying asset to the buyer, or, if it is a cash-settled futures contract, then cash is transferred from the futures trader who sustained a loss to the one who made a profit. To exit the commitment prior to the settlement date, the holder of a futures position has to offset his/her position by either selling a long position or buying back (covering) a short position, effectively closing out the futures position and its contract obligations.

Futures contracts, or simply futures, (but not future or future contract) are exchange traded derivatives. The exchange's clearinghouse acts as counterparty on all contracts, sets margin requirements, and crucially also provides a mechanism for settlement.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

How to Use Stop Losses to Keep Profits From Slipping Away - By Bryan Perry

Bryan Perry is the editor of Tactical Trader, an options trading advisory newsletter, and is a contributor to the Options Zone Web site (www.optionszone.com).

Everyone wants to know where to make the most money in the shortest amount of time. Sometimes, however, it's just as important to know where you aren't going to make the fast money -- and right now, at least, it's tough to make money by owning common stock.

The cardinal sin of investing, which is particularly atrocious when it comes to options trading, is letting big profits slip away.

Let's face it, one of the main reasons we trade options is for their home run potential. With options, you are essentially swinging for the fences every time you step up to the plate.

Like any good power hitter, you are going to strike out more often than you hit that home run -- that's just part of the game. But when you do knock it out of the park, it's simply unforgivable to let that profit evaporate into thin air.

But how do you make sure you keep those home run profits when you hit them? Fortunately, the answer is quite simple in theory, although it's not always easy to execute.

Stop the Madness

Making sure you keep the profits you've gained is really as simple as setting a stop loss. By developing appropriate stop-loss levels on all of your positions, you can protect the gains you have by not letting them slip through your fingers.

While you can set a stop-loss order with your broker to be triggered when an option hits a certain price, you can also keep track of the trade manually and set mental sell stops based on how the stock is trading. By doing so you won't be taken out of the options trade unexpectedly, and you can exert more control by watching the stock closely and revising your trading strategy frequently.

Once you have a good profit, you should always set a trailing stop for the underlying stock -- that is, a level just below the current market price. A 3% stop loss is a good rule of thumb. In other words, if the underlying stock's price is $50, set a stop loss of $47.50. If the stock price hits $47.50, take profits on the rest of your option position.

Sometimes a tighter stop loss may be appropriate, but it's important to be aggressive when you're taking profits. People often ask me what really constitutes a "good profit." The exact level is, of course, up to you to decide, but I consider anything in the double-digit percentages to be gains worthy of protection.

The trailing stop is tremendously effective when the trade is moving in your favor as well. If the stock trades up to $50 and keeps on going, ratchet up your stops accordingly, keeping them 3% to 5% away from the present stock price. That way, if the stock trades down from that higher level, you will have plenty of time to close the position and keep most of your profits.

However, even if the stop is not hit, you may still exit a position if you think the underlying stock is flattening out or when you believe it has hit some overhead resistance (for call option position) or underlying support (for put positions). That's the beauty of options trading -- you always have, well, options!

That being said, I can't emphasize enough how important quick action is when things start turning against you. With options, due to their limited lifespan, you are usually only given one chance to get out. Given the time considerations, it's essential that stop losses be in place and ready to protect your gains.

Beating the Clock

As I always say, for option buyers, time is your greatest enemy. Given enough time, most stocks will make a major move, giving you the opportunity to score a home run. If you can find an undervalued option with a lot of time left until expiration, you are looking at an opportunity that could turn into a terrific investment.

Always keep in mind that cheap, long-term options where the strike price is in range of the underlying stock price are truly diamonds in the rough. The point to remember here is to buy enough time for the option to work in your favor, because time tends to fly away.

Options depreciate as time passes, especially in the six-month period preceding expiration when they lose their value even more quickly. So, the following bears repeating: Buy yourself enough time. Also, always set a time limit on how long you will hold an option. If nothing happens within that time period, exit the position and rotate your investment capital to where it will perform better for you. With more-expensive options and in-the-money options, I usually set a three-week holding period.

Remember, you're never stuck with an options position. If a position isn't working out in your favor, it can easily be replaced. And if it is working for you, make sure you set a trailing stop loss so that you don't let your home run trades slip away.

For more trading strategies, go to TradingMarkets.com/reports.

What Are "Put Options" ?

A put option (sometimes simply called a "put") is a financial contract between two parties, the seller (writer) and the buyer of the option. The put allows its buyer the right but not the obligation to sell a commodity or financial instrument (the underlying instrument) to the writer (seller) of the option at a certain time for a certain price (the strike price). The writer (seller) has the obligation to purchase the underlying asset at that strike price, if the buyer exercises the option.

Note that the writer of the option is agreeing to buy the underlying asset if the buyer exercises the option. In exchange for having this option, the buyer pays the writer (seller) a fee (the premium). (Note: Although option writers are frequently referred to as sellers, because they initially sell the option that they create, thus taking a long position in the option, they are not the only sellers. An option holder can also sell his short position in the option. However, the difference between the two sellers is that the option writer takes on the legal obligation to buy the underlying asset at the strike price, whereas the option holder is merely selling his long position, and is not contractually obligated by the sold option.)

Exact specifications may differ depending on option style. A European put option allows the holder to exercise the put option for a short period of time right before expiration. An American put option allows exercise at any time during the life of the option.

The most widely-known put option is for stock in a particular company. However, options are traded on many other assets: financial - such as interest rates (see interest rate floor) - and physical, such as gold or crude oil.

The put buyer either believes it's likely the price of the underlying asset will fall by the exercise date, or hopes to protect a long position in the asset. The advantage of buying a put over short selling the asset is that the risk is limited to the premium. The put writer does not believe the price of the underlying security is likely to fall. The writer sells the put to collect the premium. Puts can also be used to limit portfolio risk, and may be part of an option spread.


Writing a put option - This is a graphical interpretation of the payoffs and profits generated by a put option as seen by the writer of the option. Profit is maximized when the price of the underlying security exceeds the strike price, because the option expires worthless and the writer keeps the premium.

Buying a put option - This is a graphical interpretation of the payoffs and profits generated by a put option as seen by the buyer of the option. A lower stock price means a higher profit. Eventually, the price of the underlying security will be low enough to fully compensate for the price of the option.

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